Vikings Host Bills in Week 9 Showdown
SportsLine projects the Minnesota defense to hold the Buffalo offense to under 17 points in Monday's matchup.
By Diego Mendoza ·
The Minnesota Vikings will host the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football for the final game of the Week 9 NFL slate. The matchup pits the league's top defense against its leading offense. The SportsLine Projection Model sides with Minnesota, backing the Vikings to cover as 3.5-point underdogs.
The Vikings enter the game with a 3-0 home record. They allowed only 13.3 points per game this season, the lowest total in the NFL. The team was the final undefeated squad in the league before falling 19-15 to the Detroit Lions last week. Buffalo holds the No. 1 scoring offense in the league but has covered a 3-point spread on the road in just one of its three away games.
The model simulates each NFL game 10,000 times. In this specific matchup, the simulation favors the Vikings in 53% of runs. The projection suggests Josh Allen will face a stout defensive front that limits his passing options. The model has posted a 60-51 record on top-rated picks since 2024, with $100 players earning more than $5,000 in returns.
Vikings wide receiver Jauan Jennings is listed as inactive for the game due to a calf injury. Carson Wentz will start at quarterback for Buffalo. The change at the helm creates a favorable situation for Minnesota's Justin Jefferson. SportsLine expert Alex Selesnick, known as PropStarz, noted that Wentz and Jefferson have shown strong chemistry in the past. He called the matchup excellent for the Vikings receiver in a competitive game environment.
SportsLine also supports a pick on Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir to exceed 4.5 receptions. Expert Doug cited Shakir's reliability when Allen is under pressure. Shakir was targeted on 15 of his 51 routes when Allen faced a blitz this season, catching 11 of those passes. His 0.29 target per route run leads the Bills. The Vikings blitz on 69% of plays, nearly double the rate of any other team. Their two-high safety and zone-heavy scheme fits Shakir's route tree.
The model combines these three elements into a same-game wager. The specific picks are the Vikings to cover the 3.5-point spread, Shakir to catch more than 4.5 passes, and Jefferson to gain more than 75.5 receiving yards. A combined bet on these three outcomes carries odds of +400. This means a $100 stake would yield a $400 profit if all selections land. Odds are subject to change at the sportsbook.
BetMGM offers a bonus code for new users tied to this matchup. The code CBSSPORTS provides $150 in bonus bets if the first wager wins. If the qualifying bet loses, the user receives up to $1,500 in bonus bets. The offer varies by location. Bettors can use the code to wager on the top games of the day.
The sportsbook provides tools for responsible gaming. These include live chat support, gaming limits, and timeout options. The platform also lists contact information for helplines such as 1-800-MY-RESET. Bettors can call or text the helpline 24 hours a day.
