Democrats need four Senate seats to flip control in 2026 midterms

Democrats must win four additional Senate seats to seize control of the upper chamber in Tuesday's midterm elections. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority and are defending that position across 35 contested seats. The party in the White House often faces losses in midterm cycles, a dynamic that has complicated the GOP's electoral map. Early exit polls indicate President Trump's job approval is below 50 percent in nearly all Senate battleground states, including several he won by double digits in 2024.

The race is particularly tight in at least five states where Republicans seek to retain their seats. Maine Republican Susan Collins runs in a state Kamala Harris carried in 2024. In Georgia, incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff faces Republican Mike Collins, while in South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews challenges Republican Darline Graham. CBS News projects that Virginia Democrat Mark Warner, first elected in 2008, will win reelection. Of the 11 states considered battlegrounds, eight are currently held by Republicans and three by Democrats.

Voters in key districts cited the state of their personal finances as a primary concern. In all surveyed battlegrounds, more respondents reported that their financial situations had worsened compared to previous years. Party control of the Senate emerged as a major factor for voters. Majorities of those supporting both Republican and Democratic candidates identified which party holds the Senate majority as a decisive element in their voting choice.

In Alaska, Democratic candidate Mary Peltola addressed the controversy surrounding her opponent, incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan. Peltola told reporters that accusations of fraud by Sullivan and other Republicans may have reengaged her base. She noted that Sullivan voted for the Iran war 14 times and argued that the opposition's tactics backfired. A federal judge dismissed a Trump administration lawsuit last Sunday that sought to block certification if Sullivan received fewer votes than Peltola. Peltola stated she believes in the rule of law and trusts the courts to resolve any remaining issues.

Local voters in Anchorage expressed mixed views on the ballot clarity. Michael Hanson, a 66-year-old Republican who voted for Sullivan, said he preferred the decision be left to voters rather than the courts. Barbara Konrad, a moderate voter also backing Sullivan, criticized Peltola for being "corrupted too quickly" and expressed frustration with the volume of political ads. The New York Times reported last week on a secret effort by operatives aligned with Peltola to recruit Daniel J. Sullivan to split votes, a plan Peltola has denied involvement in.

The outcome of Tuesday's election will determine the balance of power for President Trump's final two years. GOP control of both chambers previously facilitated the president's agenda. Democrats have pickup opportunities in North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, and Texas, while they defend seats in Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire. Maine, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska are classified as toss-up races.