Lebanese stockpile supplies as war fears return

Residents in southern Lebanon are packing go-bags and charging electronic devices as fears mount over a new Israeli military escalation. The preparation reflects a shift in behavior since the April ceasefire, with many families now planning to leave their homes immediately if attacks resume rather than staying in place as they did during previous rounds of fighting.

The current tension follows a period of reduced but persistent hostilities. According to the Lebanese health ministry, Israel has killed approximately 9,000 people in Lebanon since the war began in October 2023. The majority of these deaths occurred during major escalations in the autumn of 2024 and again in March and April of this year. Israel currently occupies up to 10 kilometers of territory along the border, an area it has designated as a Yellow Line.

Aya, a resident of Abbasiyeh in southern Lebanon, said her family has stockpiled extra medication for her grandparents in case access to pharmacies becomes difficult. She stated that she intends to leave her home if the intensity of attacks increases. Aya described the current situation as mentally exhausting, noting that she can no longer handle another displacement while watching her neighbors continue with daily routines.

The diplomatic framework supporting the current lull was signed in June. The US-brokered agreement between Beirut and Tel Aviv established pilot zones where the Israeli military would withdraw and the Lebanese army would move in to disarm Hezbollah. Despite this agreement, Israeli officials have accused the Lebanese army of failing to meet its obligations. The Lebanese army denies these claims. Analysts suggest the accusations may serve to build justification for further bombing campaigns.

Mohamad Bazzi, a Lebanese political analyst, argued that Israel does not need external provocation to continue its destruction in the south. He noted that Israel destroyed more of the southern region under the April 17 ceasefire than it did before the truce began. Bazzi warned that if the United States and Israel restart the war on Iran on a large scale, Israel will likely continue its policy of making the south Lebanon uninhabitable and punishing the Shia community.

Ramez, who lives in the Haret Hreik district of Beirut, has not returned to his apartment since a nearby building collapsed on it in July 2024. He currently stays at a family home 30 minutes southeast of Beirut. Ramez said he keeps his car fuel tank full and maintains a months supply of water. He described sleeping in his original home as impossible due to trauma, saying he cannot stop hallucinating the building collapsing.

Karim Safieddine, a non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, observed that the Dahiyeh district in Beirut has been partially empty for months. He said residents have maintained quick escape routes and plan for departures. He noted that the population density in the area drops at night as families relocate to safer locations.

Economic strain compounds the anxiety among residents. The World Bank reported in August that it expects Lebanon inflation to reach 17.5 percent this year. Analysts warn that this financial pressure could lead to social unrest. Bazzi said that as people exhaust their savings, society may blame Hezbollah and the broader Shia community for the conflict, increasing the risk of internal strife.

Jad Dilati, an analyst from Nabatieh, said some families pay rent for apartments in other parts of the country to secure backup housing for the next war. He described this practice as a privilege not everyone can afford. Other analysts warned that another round of fighting could ignite sectarian tensions, especially as Israel warns non-Shia communities against hosting displaced people.