Lula's Digital Turnaround Secures Fourth Term After Flipping First-Round Deficit

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth nonconsecutive term as president of Brazil on Sunday. Results were declared shortly after midnight UK time on October 26, 2026. Lula defeated far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff election. The outcome marked a reversal of the first-round results from earlier this month.

Lula captured 51.79% of the total vote. Flávio Bolsonaro received 48.21%. The margin of victory stood at approximately 4.3 million votes among Brazil’s 159 million voters. Lula described the result as a defeat for denialism. His opponent leads the political movement established by his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup.

The race tightened dramatically between the two ballots. In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro held a lead with 56.1 million votes compared to Lula’s 53.8 million. That translated to 47.03% for the challenger and 45.16% for the incumbent. Since democracy returned to Brazil in 1985, no runner-up from the first round had won the second ballot. Polls in the weeks following the initial vote showed the gap closing to fractions of a percentage point.

Strategic shifts and campaign controversies influenced the final count. A record abstention rate of 21% in the first round affected lower-income voters who typically support Lula. Progressives organized through a WhatsApp channel called Lula's army to promote digital content. Lula, who recently acquired his first smartphone, began posting on Instagram and TikTok. His digital reach surpassed that of the Bolsonaro campaign for the first time. The Bolsonaro side faced scandals, including a report by the magazine Piauí alleging Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists in 2020.

External factors and platform disputes also shaped the campaign. President Donald Trump called the trial of Jair Bolsonaro a witch hunt and imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Lula positioned himself as a counter to what he termed colonial designs by the United States. He pursued a multilateral foreign policy balancing relations with the US, China, and Russia. Brazil’s electoral court ordered Meta to avoid giving candidates unequal treatment. The company labeled the allegations false and unfounded. A dozen watchdogs had previously published reports suggesting Meta favored the Bolsonaro campaign.

The election outcome carries implications for environmental policy. Deforestation in the Amazon dropped by more than 70% under Lula’s previous terms. His government also targeted illegal mining and supported Indigenous communities. However, Lula must now work with a newly elected congress that includes a record number of rightwing politicians hostile to environmental causes. The environment was a minor topic in the final debate, as voters focused on the economy and public security.

Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede the election. He cited the decision to extend voting hours by two hours, a measure both sides had requested for different reasons. He stated it was impossible to concede the result. Guardian correspondent Tom Phillips expects the challenge to fail, noting that world leaders are already recognizing Lula’s win. Phillips suggested Bolsonaro may travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations. He believes the former senator’s political career is over. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.