Michigan votes to decide key federal and state races

Voters in Michigan head to the polls on Tuesday to decide a slate of races that could shift control of both the U.S. Senate and the state government.

The contest for the U.S. Senate is the center of national attention. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a former Detroit public health official, faces Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman. They are vying to replace retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters. El-Sayed has characterized Rogers as a supporter of President Donald Trump, while Rogers argues El-Sayed is too extreme for the state. El-Sayed secured his nomination in an August primary over Representative Haley Stevens, a victory that aligned with a wave of progressive wins across the country. Rogers faced no opposition in the Republican primary after narrowly losing to Democrat Elissa Slotkin in the 2024 race for the state’s other Senate seat.

Democrats are seeking a net gain of four House seats to retake the chamber. They have mounted strong challenges in traditionally Republican areas like Alaska and Texas. Republicans aim to hold the Michigan seat to prevent that shift. Three key congressional districts are in play. In the 4th District, eight-term Republican Representative Bill Huizenga faces Democratic state Senator Sean McCann. In the 7th District, freshman Republican Representative Tom Barrett runs against Democrat William Lawrence. The 10th District is an open seat following John James’s move to the gubernatorial race, featuring a five-candidate field that includes Republican Mike Bouchard and Democrat Christina Hines.

Statewide races will determine the next governor and the makeup of the state Legislature. Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson challenges Republican Representative John James for the governor’s office. Both parties are defending narrow majorities in the state Senate and state House, where all seats are up for election. The outcome in the state’s six most populous counties will likely decide these races. Wayne County, home to Detroit, has the state’s highest share of Black residents at approximately 37%. Washtenaw County is a Democratic stronghold, while Genesee County has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 1984.

Saginaw County in central Michigan is a critical indicator of the state’s political direction. It is the only county to support the statewide winner in nine consecutive presidential elections from 1992 to 2024. In 2024, it was the only county that voted for President Trump and Senator Elissa Slotkin. Republicans generally perform better in the smaller, rural counties of the Upper Peninsula.

A 2023 law changed how Michigan processes absentee mail ballots. Jurisdictions with at least 5,000 people may begin counting these ballots up to eight days before Election Day. Smaller towns may start the morning before. This rule aims to prevent the delays seen in 2020, when a slow count initially favored President Trump before Democrat Joe Biden took the lead the next day. In 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris led early, but President Trump took the lead as Election Day ballots were counted.

Polls close at 8 p.m. local time. Most of the state is in the Eastern time zone, while parts of the Upper Peninsula are in the Central time zone. The Associated Press will not declare winners in statewide races until 9 p.m. ET. In the 2022 gubernatorial race, about 4.5 million votes were cast, with approximately 42% coming from early or absentee ballots.

Automatic recounts occur in statewide races if the margin is 0.1% or less of the total votes. Candidates may also request a recount if they have a good-faith belief that a counting error affected the result. In the 2024 general election, the first results appeared at 8:06 p.m. ET, and the count reached 99% by 4:40 a.m. ET.