UK Aid Spending Expected to Miss 2027 Target by £400m

The United Kingdom is projected to miss its 2027 international aid spending target by an estimated £400m, according to new calculations from the Center for Global Development. The shortfall stems from higher-than-expected inflation and a 2025 policy change to the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office budget.

Researchers found that the central forecast implies UK aid will be £410m lower than planned next year. This level represents 0.29% of national income, falling below the 0.3% target set by the government. The Center for Global Development described a larger shortfall of £580m, or 0.28% of national income, as very plausible. Even the most conservative estimate points to a gap of £250m.

Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, called these material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid. He noted that closing even a £400m gap would halve the planned cuts to Africa. Those cuts are likely to cost thousands of lives and effectively end UK aid in the south and east of the continent.

The 0.3% goal for 2027 is well below the 0.7% promised in Labour’s election manifesto. Prime Minister Keir Starmer lowered the target to free up money for defence spending. Fleur Anderson, a former minister on the foreign affairs select committee, said she wants to see higher aid spending in this week’s budget. She stated, “at the very least we should be hitting the reduced target that was set.”

Figures released by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office in September showed that recent cuts hit the world’s poorest nations hardest. Funding to least-developed and low-income countries fell by 6.7%, or £118m. The UK’s overall official development assistance budget dropped to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024, a decrease of £987m.

The government has prioritised funding through multilateral bodies such as the World Bank and Gavi. It has also maintained humanitarian support. An FCDO spokesperson said the multi-year aid allocations published in March 2026 set out spending plans based on gross national income at the time of the 2025 spending review. The spokesperson added that moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides stability for high-impact programmes.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives and Reform UK have pledged to cut aid from about £9bn a year to £1bn. That level would leave the UK unable to cover its existing contributions to the UN and World Bank. The researchers urged ministers to add funds for international aid in this week’s budget to avoid criticism for missing the target.