SportsLine model favors Ohio State and Oklahoma in Week 10
Computer projections suggest the Buckeyes will cover against Oregon while the Sooners exploit Florida's defensive struggles.
By Neha Kapoor ·
A computer model projects that Ohio State and Oklahoma will cover their spreads in this weekend's college football games.
The model, which simulates every FBS matchup 10,000 times, entered Week 10 with a record of 80 wins and 77 losses on its top-rated selections at betting sites this season. It now recommends Ohio State, listed as 7.5-point favorites, against Oregon. The Buckeyes are set to host the Ducks on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+.
Ohio State arrives in Columbus following a loss at USC. Freshman quarterback Luke Fahey is expected to perform better at home against an Oregon defense that has allowed more passing touchdowns than only three other Big Ten teams. The model projects the Buckeyes to win by double digits, a margin that would cover the spread in over 60% of simulations. Ohio State has covered in 80% of its home games since the start of the 2025 season.
The model also favors Oklahoma to cover its 6.5-point spread as a visitor in Gainesville. Florida has lost three of its last four games, with each defeat coming by 19 or more points. The Gators' quarterback situation remains unsettled, as Aaron Philo was benched after throwing two interceptions in a loss to Georgia. His replacement, Tramell Jones, also committed two turnovers in that same contest. Florida leads the SEC in penalty yards, which the model cites as a factor in the projected close result.
Oklahoma offers more stability at the quarterback position. John Mateer has averaged 296.5 total yards, four passing touchdowns, and zero turnovers over his last two games. The model suggests the Over will connect in 59% of simulations for this contest. In other high-profile matchups, the No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 7.5-point favorites over No. 1 Miami. The Hurricanes are without star wide receiver Malachi Toney due to an ankle injury. The Irish seek to avenge their loss to Miami in the previous season.
Other notable odds for the weekend include Alabama as 6.5-point favorites over LSU and Georgia as 3.5-point underdogs at Ole Miss. In the Mountain West Conference, No. 3 Utah holds a 4.5-point home advantage over BYU. The Utes aim to extend their winning streak against the Cougars to four games. The model has also identified three projected upsets in ranked matchups across the full slate of FBS games.
