Voters under 30 shift heavily to Democrats in midterms

Voters under the age of 30 voted overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates in Tuesday's midterm elections, erasing the gains made by President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential campaign. This shift represents a dramatic change from two years prior, when young voters were roughly split between Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris.

The Associated Press Voter Poll, which surveyed more than 100,000 midterm voters, found that approximately three-quarters of voters under 30 supported their local Democratic candidate. In contrast, about one-quarter voted for the Republican. This level of support outpaces the results from 2018, when Trump’s party suffered losses during his first term.

In nearly all major Senate races, support for Democrats among voters under 30 increased by double digits compared with the 2024 election. The trend was consistent across House campaigns nationwide. The AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters from the previous election, confirmed that this current shift marks a sharp departure from the near-even split observed two years ago.

Andy Soma, 24, a mathematics Ph.D. candidate at North Carolina State University, described his decision to vote for North Carolina Democrat Roy Cooper as his first time feeling a genuine need to participate in an election. Soma, who does not identify with a specific party, cited disappointment with the economy and the war with Iran as primary motivators. He stated he wanted to take a stand.

Corey Herzog, 28, an independent-turned-Democrat in Celina, Ohio, also voted for the Democratic ticket. Herzog works at Walmart by day and bartends at night while building a small business selling house plants. He said he is trying to save money to buy a house but finds it difficult under current conditions. Other young voters cited personal experiences, including working multiple jobs and the expansion of artificial intelligence data centers into their communities.

John Della Volpe, a pollster for the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics, noted that the rapid changes in young voter preference suggest this demographic is not fixed to one party. He described them as being up for grabs, particularly given their concerns about the economy and the future. In 2024, Trump won over more than half of male voters under 30 by courting young men disillusioned by economic stagnation and foreign policy.

This year, however, many of those young men either stayed home or backed Democrats. Trump’s administration implemented tariff policies that drove up inflation, started a war with Iran, and resisted releasing documents related to Jeffrey Epstein. Charlie Sabgir, director of the Young Men Research Project, called the combination of these factors a perfect cocktail for disaster. Voters under 30 were more likely than older groups to say the cost of living and military action against Iran were crucial to their decision.

The AP Voter Poll found that only about one-quarter of voters under 30 believe Trump is a strong leader or has the mental capacity to serve effectively. This is a sharp contrast to 2024, when about half of that age group felt the same. The decline in confidence was larger in this group than in any other. About 6 in 10 young voters said expressing opposition to Trump was a reason for their House vote.

A national consortium of college Republican groups issued a statement blaming the Trump administration for the Republican defeat, which they described as the greatest since 1974. The group stated that young Republicans were not given what they were promised. Kidus Girma, campaigns director for the Sunrise Movement, reported meeting young men in Michigan who voted because they were disappointed by the gap between the president's statements and their material realities.

Sarah Stull, an 18-year-old student at the University of Texas at Austin, voted for James Talarico for Senate and Gina Hinojosa for governor. She and her friends celebrated the results by jumping for joy outside the Texas Capitol. Stull posted a video on TikTok with the caption millennial optimism cause texas went blue. Dakota Hall, executive director of the Alliance for Youth Action, warned that young voters have a short leash and may shift right again if Democrats do not address cost of living, AI regulation, and government corruption.