Broncos Data Shows J.K. Dobbins Runs Better With Fewer Early Carries

J.K. Dobbins has averaged 6.1 yards per carry in games played after December 1 in seasons where his total carries through the first eight weeks did not exceed 100. This specific metric stands in sharp contrast to his performance in years with heavier early workloads, where his average drops to 3.6 yards per carry in the same late-season window.

The Broncos (5-2) face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday at Empower Field. If the team follows its recent trends, Dobbins would need approximately 13 carries in this game to reach the 100-carry threshold for the first eight games of the 2026 season. His current pace of 12.4 carries per game is his lowest usage rate since 2022. In that year, he averaged 11.5 carries over his first eight appearances. As a rookie in 2020, he averaged just 6.6 carries during the same initial stretch.

Dobbins addressed his limited playing time during a media scrum at Dove Valley earlier this week. He described himself as a math guy who trusts the coaching staff's plan. He noted that head coach Sean Payton frequently inserted rookie Jonah Coleman and second-year back RJ Harvey in the second half of the 30-16 victory at Arizona on Sunday. Dobbins recorded only two carries after the halftime break in that game. He stated that the organization is saving him for the long haul and that he remains available to mentor younger players on the roster.

The running back has played in only 11 NFL regular-season games from December 1 onward throughout his seven-year career. By comparison, he has played in 43 games between September and November. He has appeared in four postseason games with a 1-3 record, though he has not yet played in a playoff game with Denver. His comments follow a period where fans questioned whether reduced early-season volume would improve his durability and effectiveness as the winter approaches.

Insiders from The Denver Post's Grading The Week segment analyzed the data to test Dobbins' theory. They found that a player with fewer touches through mid-November tends to be more effective later in the season. However, the analysis also noted that other elite backs, such as Jonathan Taylor, maintain high carry averages in December and January regardless of their early-season workload. Taylor has averaged 22 carries in those months over his career, even after averaging 16.8 carries in September and October.

The question remains whether the strategic rest of Dobbins outweighs the potential value of acquiring a different star. The Broncos had $4.4 million in salary cap space as of last Friday. Trading for Taylor would require a cap hit of $21 million in 2027 and $22.98 million in 2028. Dobbins emphasized that his primary goal is winning a Super Bowl, regardless of the method. He said he has been in the playoffs before and is focused on whatever it takes to secure a championship.

The Broncos will test this strategy on Sunday against the Chiefs. The team seeks to secure the top of the AFC West. Dobbins' role may expand if the team seeks to keep him under the 100-carry mark to preserve his late-season efficiency. The outcome of this game will provide immediate data on whether the current management approach continues to yield positive results for the veteran running back.