Broncos face Chiefs in division decider with 49 percent win probability at stake

The Denver Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday at 2:25 p.m., a contest that will likely decide the AFC West title. According to the New York Times simulator, a Denver victory raises the Broncos' odds of winning the division to 49 percent. A loss drops those chances to 14 percent. The teams have met recently in the other direction of this series, with Kansas City winning 31-10 in the season opener.

The primary defensive challenge for Denver is containing running back Kenneth Walker. In the first meeting, Walker rushed for 144 yards after contact, a figure that ranked ninth among 5,386 running backs since 2022. The Broncos missed 28 tackles in that game, allowing 247 missed tackle yards, which was the most by any defense in an NFL game since 2018. Outside linebacker Nik Bonitto described the previous performance as embarrassing, while defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said the team must fix specific issues to prevent Walker from breaking explosive plays.

Denver’s offensive backfield faces its own uncertainties. Rookie Jonah Coleman is expected to shoulder a heavier load because RJ Harvey is out with a knee injury. Veteran J.K. Dobbins remains the starter but said the coaching staff is managing his workload to keep him healthy. The Broncos’ passing attack also faces a difficult matchup. ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky noted that the Chiefs' defense uses simulated pressures that choke a quarterback's processing speed. The Chiefs blitz on only 28.9 percent of snaps, the 12th-lowest rate in the league, but their pressure tactics force quarterbacks to identify threats quickly.

The Chiefs' offensive strength currently lies in the running game rather than the pass. Kansas City leads the NFL in rushing yards per play and ranks second in expected points added per rush. Walker has recorded 19 runs of 10 or more yards, the third-most in the league. In contrast, Patrick Mahomes sits 14th in passer rating and 18th in passing yards. Tight end Travis Kelce stated on his podcast that the team does not expect to repeat their previous performance, promising a different showing on the field.

Special teams and coaching adjustments will also play roles. Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker is 11 of 16 for the season, a conversion rate that is the worst of his career. The Broncos’ Wil Lutz has made all his field goal attempts recently. On the sideline, the game features a matchup between Sean Payton and Andy Reid, two coaches with extensive history. Denver’s staff must adjust after the early-season struggles that led to offensive coordinator Davis Webb being removed from play-calling duties.