Israeli experts say election outcome will not alter Iran strategy

Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday for the first general election since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. While the vote determines the next leader, experts say the choice between the two main candidates will not radically change the country's military posture toward Tehran.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to hold onto power against Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces. Eisenkot leads the centrist party Yashar, which is currently in the lead in polls. The campaign has turned into a tight race between these two figures.

US President Donald Trump has publicly backed Netanyahu, calling him a warrior prime minister. In an online post, Trump warned that if Israel chose a different leader, the United States would have to manage the conflict with Iran alone. He stated he was not inclined to take on that workload.

Reports suggest tensions exist between the Israeli government and the White House. The Financial Times reported that Israeli military leaders planned new strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and energy infrastructure around October 10. Trump opposed this escalation ahead of the US midterm elections on November 3. The Jerusalem Post later disputed this account, saying the army had no specific directive for such an operation.

Raz Zimmt, who heads the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told Deutsche Welle that political differences between Israeli factions regarding the Iranian nuclear threat are minor. He does not expect dramatic changes in policy regardless of which government forms.

Zimmt argued that any military escalation depends heavily on the decision of the US president. Danny Citrinovitch, a senior fellow at the same institute, agreed that no fundamental shift should be expected. He noted that even if Netanyahu leaves office, the policies shaped in recent years will persist.

Navid Toobian of the Middle East Media Research Institute in the US said the October 7 attack changed how Israel views Iran. Before that day, many believed Israel could manage the threat in a limited way. Toobian said the strike by Hamas, an Iran-allied group, proved that Tehran would spare no effort to hit Israel.

Damon Golriz of the Hague Institute for Geopolitics described the current US and Israeli policy as having three goals. These include removing regime leaders, causing infrastructural collapse, and using armed separatists to weaken Iran. He also pointed to a diplomatic framework signed in Islamabad six months ago, where Iran agreed not to initiate war. Golriz said that agreement was a missed opportunity for peace. Iranian security officials recently told Reuters that Tehran has prepared plans for retaliatory strikes, including targeting undersea cables and data centers in the region.