Netanyahu retains leadership as Israel's Knesset hangs in the balance

Binyamin Netanyahu remains Israel's prime minister as final election results are expected to confirm a hung parliament on Thursday. The count of roughly 500,000 absentee ballots from military personnel, diplomats, and patients is not expected to shift the overall outcome dramatically. Local media projections place Netanyahu's bloc at 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while opposition parties hold 48 seats and Arab-led parties hold 19.

The central question now is who can assemble the 61 seats required to form a government. Gadi Eisenkot, the former military chief and Netanyahu's chief rival, has stated he is open to working with Arab-led parties. His first public statement since addressing supporters on Wednesday emphasized a government that serves all citizens and reflects the will of the people. Eisenkot did not explicitly mention an alliance with the Arab bloc in that initial address, though he has previously signaled willingness to cooperate.

Arab-led parties, including the Joint List, celebrated a strong showing as many Arab citizens voted in large numbers. The Joint List described the results as an unprecedented show of strength and expressed openness to political cooperation. Until 2021, no Arab party had joined a coalition government, and that tenure was brief. Small rallies in support of such a coalition took place overnight in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Netanyahu's Likud party, which received the most votes, has challenged the results by accusing Arab-led parties of stealing the election. Likud asked the election committee to investigate the claim but provided no specific evidence. The committee reported a low number of irregularities in what it described as a relatively calm election.

President Yitzhak Herzog will task a leader with forming the next government next week. Tradition favors the leader of the largest party, but it is not a requirement. Herzog indicated he wants to avoid new elections, a sentiment shared by Eisenkot. If no government is formed after multiple attempts, Israel would face another vote early next year.

The election took place against a backdrop of deep division over issues such as military service exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox population and the ongoing war in Gaza. Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving prime minister, faces corruption allegations and accusations that he delayed hostage deals for political gain. Many Israelis voted with security concerns in mind, while the country's international standing remains a point of contention due to the treatment of Palestinians in Gaza and settler violence in the West Bank.

Brosli Elias, a resident of Nazareth, one of Israel's largest Arab cities, expressed cautious hope for change. He said, "God willing, we will have something for us in the government, something that will bring us our rights."

External pressures also loom over the coalition talks. The Trump administration has spoken of new strikes against Iran after the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Experts note that Netanyahu could use renewed conflict to push for a unity government with him in charge. Such a move could delay a public inquiry into the security failures that led to the Hamas-led assault on October 7, 2023.